Paper no. 876

31. 12. 2003

India’s Future: Trend should be a Friend 

Guest Column-by Moorthy Muthuswamy PhD 

Importance of a Trend 

China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is only $5,000 per capita. This doesn’t compare favorably with most developed countries that have typical GDP per capita of over $20,000. In particular this pales in comparison with America that has a GDP per capita of over $36,000. But the real importance of China’s GDP comes into picture when one realizes that since 1978 its GDP has quadrupled, with China averaging an economic growth-rate of over 7% every year! This trend in the economic growth of China tells us where China is heading. It determines how countries should start preparing for a future with China, with its importance determined not by the current figure of $5,000, but the trend of continued high economic growth rate. 

Like China, India too is an emerging nation with an average economic growth rate of about 5% since 1990. Although the GDP per capita of India is only $2,600, it is the trend that makes India be taken all the more seriously. 

Conclusion: Economic growth trend is a friend for India. 

Trends in Conflicts 

India has been facing naxal-driven insurgencies from time to time. In West Bengal, this was a problem in the 1960s but was eventually rooted out. One is again seeing this reoccurring in parts of Andra Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. 

In Punjab, there was a Sikh-based insurgency aided by Pakistan. But it too fizzled out.  

The ongoing insurgencies in the North-East are associated by Christian and Hindu groups. They appear to be financed and armed by Pakistan and Bangladesh. The Hindu group ULFA doesn’t seem to have large following. It appears to be reeling since the attack on its terror camps by Bhutanese troops. The insurgency in Mizoram was neutralized by the way of a political settlement. There seem to be some headway made in reaching political settlement with the Nagaland insurgency group.  

But the North-East insurgencies pale in comparison with the other major insurgency in India, - the Muslim Kashmir insurgency. This has tied down a very large percentage of Indian army and it costs India considerable resources. Now Kashmir is used as a staging post to launch jihad against the entire “infidel” India. 

Trends in Muslim Kashmir Insurgency 

India has been losing grip on Kashmir since its ascension to India in 1948. One measure of this is the reduction in Hindu population in Muslim majority areas and introduction of Muslim population in non-Muslim areas, over and well above the population growth rates. The Kashmir valley Muslims constitutionally wield power disproportionate to their population percentage and have used the power to push the jihadisation of Jammu and Kashmir relentlessly, at the expense of others ( The origin of this thrust comes from most Islamic centers that consider it as a religious duty to marginalise infidels and expand Islamic frontiers. 

Even as India holds on to Kashmir by deploying a large contingent of its military, the trends indicate an increasing Islamisation of the state and the marginalisation of Indian interests. 

Conclusion: India is continuing to lose Jammu & Kashmir 

Current trends indicate that in India Islamic threat would continue

Unlike India’s only Muslim majority state of Kashmir that is boiling with insurgency one doesn’t expect similar level Muslim insurgencies elsewhere in India as Muslims are well distributed among the majority Hindu community. The question arises as to what indicators can be used to qualify and quantify the extent of jihadisation of Indian Muslims and more importantly what are the trends. 

Over the years some Hindus have been leaving Muslim enclaves in the rest of India owing to feelings of insecurity. This perception is built up by their portrayals in local mosques that view Hindus as infidels. This slow ethnic cleansing too must be regarded as a low-intensity jihad. 

The above observation must be kept in mind in relation to the massive ethnic cleansing of non-Muslims in every Muslim majority area of South Asia (including Kashmir, Pakistan and Bangladesh) and the constitution-based mistreatment of non-Muslims in such regions. 

Indicators of a losing trend for India: 

* Growth rate of security expenses related battling Islamic fundamentalism in India is far outpacing economic growth rate, with the end result of the government running up huge budget deficits and with little money left for India’s economic development. 

* In Uttar Pradesh recently, the clerics have overwhelmingly rejected any attempts to introduce job-oriented state-financed modern education in about 20,000 madarasas – Muslim religious schools. This paves the way to create future generations of Islamic extremists and terrorists, as the clerics insist on teaching only Islamic theology, and a glorified version of Islamic history achieved through jihad against infidels such as Hindus.  

* A poll conducted among Indian Muslims showed over 60% support for the Afghan Taliban. A recent India Today poll showed 49% of Indian Muslims considering Pakistan as an ally/brother/friend (only 16% of Hindus did). 

* A revelation of Indian Muslim mindset popped out in the early 1990s, when there was a large effort by them to collect funds to rehabilitate Bosnian Muslims ethnically cleansed by Serbs. However, this happened when in the Indian Kashmir, Hindus were ethnically cleansed by Kashmiri Muslims. No consorted effort was undertaken by Indian Muslims on behalf of displaced Kashmiri Hindus. 

* Indian Muslims continue to slip in every measure of progress – literacy, wealth and health.

* Extrapolating the census figures of 10% Indian Muslim population in 1951 and 12.6% in 1991, by 2050, the percentage will rise anywhere from 16% to 24%, depending upon the extent of illegal Muslim Bangladeshi migration. It is useful to be reminded that when India was divided on the basis of Islam in 1947, Muslims constituted about 24%. 

* Bangladeshi Muslims continue to infiltrate in large numbers, with the government not being able to send back the millions of Bangladeshi Muslims already in the country. 

Conclusion: Current trends indicate that  in India Islamic threat would continue.

Reversing the Trend 

As someone who has developed new approaches toward solving the Islamic threat India faces, I can confidently state that India can solve this problem. Every enemy has weaknesses that can be exploited to achieve victory ( What India needs is a self-belief that it can win this war! 

The magnitude of the threat calls for the society at large to participate fully. Given the majority religions’ lack of institutionalization, the organizations representing them, such as RSS/VHP should play a greater role in educating and galvanizing the community. Unlike Hinduism, -- Christianity, Islam or Sikhism does not particularly suffer from this lack of institutionalization. Without this galvanizing by community groups, India will not be able to reverse the trend.  

The reader may note that Pakistan has relentlessly pushed its interests without worrying about others. It performed the worst atrocities including butchering at least a million Hindus in the then East Pakistan and got away. To reverse this jihadisation trend Indians must promote their interests without apology. In comparison to Pakistan, any approach taken by India can only be regarded as a genuine defense of its civilization. 

The dynamics of Islamic fundamentalism within India is geared toward Islamising it slowly though various forms terrorism, demographic expansion, and destruction. Due to the converging goals Indian Muslim extremists find it convenient to work with an adversarial Pakistan. Even if Indo-Pak peace were to emerge it is not going to nullify this desire of Indian Muslim extremists. India has no other choice but to move decisively toward dismantling the power centers of Islamic fundamentalism. But such steps are not likely to be seen favorably by Pakistan. Hence, the act of trying to build friendly relations with Pakistan is not recommended.  

If Pakistan is seen to threaten India with nuclear weapons, it is well within India’s right to launch massive preemptive strategic strikes on Pakistan. Such an action is easily justified given Pakistan’s history of killing well over a million Hindus in the then East Pakistan and in Kashmir, and ethnically cleansing millions more. 


I would like to describe an emerging India with a following analogy. 

India is like a high school student who has for the first time started doing well in academics. He is now better nourished, feels more confident and has better finances. Unfortunately he is inflicted with a cancer in the form of Islamic fundamentalism. This student is showing promise; he could excel in college and in the rest of his life, --depending upon outcome of the battle with his growing cancer. Hence the future of this student relies upon curing the cancer permanently.   

(The views expressed here are author’s own. The writer is a nuclear physicist based in America. His contact address:

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